I'm obviously schizophrenic, as the 18s rankings appear to reveal an obvious JVDA bias...

I believe I picked Laguna for this group when they were 15s in 2006, with KiVA second and Dallas Premier and TAV tied for third. I have no idea where you got the AEV pick. I actually picked them 23rd.

Predicting the 15 Open Division at JOs: It's a Wiz
Written by John Tawa
Tuesday, 13 June 2006


PrepVolleyball.com's famous year-end predictions continue with the 15 Open Division at JOs. While a handful of teams could realistically get hot enough to win it all, we're going with the best, most consistent teams to make it to the finals, with Laguna finding the right formula to take home the title in a championship thriller.
In preparing this preview, we have come up with four pools of seven, following the format used last year, and tried to be faithful in the seeding process while also steering clear as much as possible from pooling teams from the same region. I want to stress that these are NOT the actual pools you will see once you get to JOs, but are our unscientific guesses of what the pools MIGHT look like. We admit to no inside information and will go so far as to admit that the seedings committee probably doesn't even look at this propaganda we put out.

Now we come to the caveats you may have seen over the last few years. First, I do not root for or against anyone. If I predict your team not to do well and you emerge with a medal around your neck, I'll be thrilled.

Second, neither these predictions nor your performance at JOs defines you as a team or as a player. With 28 teams in Open and 48 in Club, very few will meet their own high expectations. That will not make their season any less successful, however. Players and coaches may not feel that way immediately after taking 26th place, but remember how many teams wanted to be where you were at Nationals, and how few made it to the Dance.

Third, volleyball is a game of inches, almosts and what should have happeneds. My predictions envision one particular scenario, but other, equally likely scenarios certainly exist. If you're 3-2 in pool play and win tiebreakers, you could win it all. If you lose the same tiebreaker, you might find yourself finishing in the bottom half. I recognize that and know that teams I have in the 20s could just as easily finish top 10. The teams are that close.


That said, away we go…!


Pool 1

KiVA
Texas Advantage
Sports Performance
Encinitas
Team Z Navy
Long Beach
KJ

The Scene: KiVA won two qualifiers in two attempts this year, but each effort had its rough spots. At MEQ, KiVA struggled to get by Illini Elite for a bid, then lost to MAVA, its Louisville rival, in the three-team Gold round robin, which KiVA was adjudged to have won on points when the three teams, including Team Z Orange, all went 1-1. At Big South, who could forget Team Z Navy's Saturday shocker at Big South. The point is that KiVA is no sure thing despite its qualifier work to date. That being said, however, is there a better team out there? KiVA's middle tandem of Emily Hayden and Ellie Roberson is easily among the best in the country at this age group. Add Whitney Craven's physicality on the left and some serious KiVA-style D and you know why this team will be tough to beat. Texas Advantage 15 Asics has three top five finishes in three tries, a testament to TAV's ability to win the close ones. That intangible and the knowledge of playing the first two days as 14s last year with just one win (they went on to win Silver at 14 Open) makes Jason Nicholson's team dangerous as a 2 seed. It doesn't hurt to have talented players like 6-2 MB Tobi Farrar and 5-7 setter Kristen Cowling, who can set anything, anywhere, either. We all know that Sports Performance teams don't start to get REALLY good until they turn 16s, which is why coach Cheryl Butler has to be happy that Spri improved from 2nd in 14 National a year ago to double qualifying this year at Big South and NEQ. And all of this happened without 10-0 leaper Katharine Gausmann, who is expected back for AAUs this week following knee surgery. With Gausmann healthy and contributing to an offense that already boasts Emily McGee and Meghan Bray, this Spri team might have enough to arrive one year ahead of schedule.

The core of this Encinitas team took 10th in 14 Nationals a year ago. But with coach Brent Crouch, who is due to earn his PH.D. in philosophy this month from the Univ. of Oregon, offering pearls of wisdom to make this group worldly wise beyond its years, the north San Diego County kids could contend. Lydia Rudnick, who plays middle, and libero Hannah Benjamin are the team's best all around players, while RS Katie Fuller and OH Kerra Schroeder are a physical duo at the net. When second teams qualify for Open at JOs, they usually struggle. Team Z Navy has the chance to break that trend. If they serve-receive effectively, the combo of lefty setter Amanda Philpot and warrior left side Courtney Gagnon could take them far. Long Beach Mizuno has a nice group of kids, but might be too young to make some serious noise. The team's best players, s/RS Megan Moenoa, and MB Taylor Hollins, just completed seventh and eighth grade, respectively. KJ didn't make 14 Open a year ago and lost two of its very best players from a year ago, yet here they are, better and more successful than a year ago, a testament to the fact that it's a team game. The only team from the Pacific Northwest to have qualified in Open, KJ relies on aggressive serving and good passing to succeed. Scoring comes from Lauren Campbell, Jessie Genger, Ellie Radich and Amanda Dills, who get set from 5-4 Caryn Westrick, who was ready to quit volleyball after last year at another club and is now setting one of the top 15s teams in the country.


Predicted Pool Play Records

KiVA 5-1
Texas Advantage 4-2
Encinitas 3-3
Sports Performance 3-3
KJ 3-3
Team Z Navy 2-4
Long Beach 1-5

Notes: KiVA shows few signs of vulnerability in winning the pool. Alexis Bauer does a nice job of running the offense over the tourney's first two days, Hayden dents a few floors and Stephanie Klefot helps anchor a solid defense. The only loss comes at the hands of Team Z Navy. Mary Katy Schad plays great for KiVA, but the Z Navy combo of Jen Meyer and Katie Schings lights KiVA up in Game 3 to secure the upset win. Things don't go as well otherwise for Navy, which gets a big blocking performance from MB Paige Chandler and fine all around play from RS Meaghan Schmitt in a win over Long Beach, but struggles against TAV and Spri. Team Z has chances to win versus KJ and Encinitas, but can't manage comebacks in Game 3 each time. The key KJ player versus Navy is libero Stephanie Shumaker, whose digs prevent a Z rally. Encinitas' star versus Team Z is Lexi Campbell. Or is it identical twin Elizabeth Campbell? The coaching staff can't tell them apart. How do you expect us to? TAV hangs on for second, getting beaten soundly by KiVA, losing a ball control battle with KJ, but otherwise winning everything in two. The Spri win, with Sloane Sunstum banging away on the outside and libero Julie Olschwanger touching everything within the lines (and some outside them as well), turns out to be the one that clinches an advancing spot for TAV and denies one to Spri. Spri's best win comes over Z Navy in two, a match in which setter Brianne Hucek was dealing big time. KJ also loses out in the three-way tie for the final advancing spot thanks to a loss to Long Beach. Moenoa is amazing in that match for Long Beach, but so, too, are Jessika Sussoff, Stevey Anderson and Gabby Pulig.

Pool 2

Laguna Wiz
Vision
Alamo
Milwaukee Sting
Invasion 151
Club Elite
Eastside Cleveland

The Scene: Like KiVA, Laguna also won two qualifiers and has to be a favorite to go deep into the tourney. The team is tall, but not overly physical yet. It relies on ball control -- they have one of the best liberos anywhere in Erin Yoder -- and the sound setting decisions of Alexandra Palmer. MB Conley Kipp missed a fair amount of the club season following knee surgery. At almost 6-4, she could have a major impact on Atlanta. While Laguna has six players 5-11 or taller, Vision doesn't have even one, which means they rely on defense, strong serving and passing and smart setting to win. Molly Bagshaw and McKenna Haniger, who couldn't set the past two months due to injury but returned last weekend, handle the assist making, while keeping the ball up and to target is the job for Ashton Senner, Candice Silva-Martin and Katherine Fischer. Alamo had trouble winning the close ones for the first half of the club season, but maturity and a new focus helped them get over that hump at Lone Star to qualify. They have a great coach in Karen Cahill who will get the most out of this group and a terrific tandem in setter Allie Murray and MB Amber Tatsch. Milwaukee Sting won Northern Lights, but that field wasn't all that strong, so a better indication of their talent may lie in their 13th place finish at MEQ. They have one standout, libero Anna Bartz, and a bunch of very good volleyball players, many of whom, like solid MB Karen Sueppel, are sisters for Sting standouts on older teams and years past.

Kansas City's Kaepa Invasion 151 finds itself in Open via the at-large route, but don't let that fool you. In setter Kate Harris and hitters Morgan Reynolds and Brooke Fay, they have a terrific trio capable of taking this team far. Club Elite also scored an at-large bid to JOs after two top six finishes in national qualifiers. Last year, this team found itself in the upper bracket of 14 National with Sports Performance and Lions and now all three are in Open one year later. Not a tall team, Club Elite consists of some scrappy determined athletes. ONe coach described them as a "bunch of gnats." 5-6 OH Christine Bowe is one of the offensive leaders along with 5-6 Courtney Gosewich and 5-11 Marielle Ostermeyer. One of the defenders is 5-2 Bridget Murphy, the younger sister of 6-1 setter Kelsey Murphy from 1st Alliance 18-1. Eastside Cleveland found itself in 14 American a year ago, but added four new players, including powerful MB Alexa Rand, and upgraded to Open with a fifth place finish at NEQ. The problem for ECJ is that Rand committed to attending an International Music Festival in Europe and will not be with the team in Atlanta. Moreover, the team's libero will be gone for half the tourney and a couple of others will be playing unfamiliar positions. OH Julianne O'Donnell is a key contributor and a constant for the Clevelanders.



Predicted Pool Play Records

Alamo 5-1
Laguna Wiz 5-1
Vision 4-2
Invasion 151 3-3
Milwaukee Sting 2-4
Eastside Cleveland 1-5
Club Elite 1-5


Notes: Alamo drops a three-gamer to Invasion when Kaylee Miller gets hot, but otherwise wins out. Polly Korbel is bubbly after a straight set win over Vision, while Tory Vaughan is a catalyst is a nice win over ECJ. The match with Laguna goes overtime. Felicia Arriola and Lauren Bergold get back to back kills on Palmer sets to give Wiz match point, but an equalizing kill from Alycia Cox sets the stage for Murray to Tatsch two times for the Alamo win. Aside from the Alamo loss, Laguna plays well. Bekka Farrar is on as Laguna sweeps Vision, while Lindsay Mortenson and Chelsea Brown give Laguna strong play in the middle in wins over Invasion and Sting. Invasion, with Jessica Kopp giving them a lift, almost advances, but Vision takes them out in a Game 3 that features block after block from Gabrielle Cowden and timely hitting from Silva-Martin. Club Elite and Sting play hard but don't have enough to close matches in this pool. Lesley Steinmetz shows off her power and Andrea Henning her consistency for Sting, which makes some noise but not enough to get into the top three.


Pool 3

Dallas Premier
Tampa Bay
Team Z Orange
Cal Jrs
Lions
KC Extreme
Wisconsin Juniors

The Scene: Dallas Premier, they're three, three, three teams in one after the triple merger before the season started. So you'd think this team might have chemistry problems, but you'd be wrong. There have been some injuries, the most serious to setter Angie Morgan that has her out for the year, but this squad is together and focused on only one thing: winning it all. To that end, the spotlight falls on setter Megan Murphy, who has run a 5-1 exceptionally in the absence of Morgan, feeding the beast that is Premier's offense, which relies heavily on OHs Tori Mellinger and Katherine Culwell. The last time Tampa Bay was fully healthy was Day 2 at Crossroads but they are expected to be a full strength for JOs. Setter Christina Theofilos is the key to the team and its heart and soul. She's small but smart and helps out big time on the defensive end. On the outside, Danielle Erb is just beginning to scratch the surface on her enormous potential and, in the middle, Tampa has one player who is deaf in her right ear and another who is deaf in her left ear! If Team Z Orange doesn't see KiVA, look for this team to go far. They are 6-1 against the rest of the Open field, the lone loss coming to TAV. Setter Stephanie Vorherr has been battling back spasms, but has been practicing hard in preparation for JOs. The team needs her to make a long run -- she's good! Among Z Orange's many hitters, Lauren Huser, Marissa Otto and the fast improving MacKenzy Harper are three to watch for the Cincy squad. Cal Jrs was our pre-season No. 1 pick and, but for an injury to Nicole Favreau, could be a top seed in this field. Favreau is healthy again and brings a cannon to the right side while Lauren Corp is a masher in the middle. Pity the pool that has Cal Jrs as a 4 seed!

The fifth seed in this pool is Lions, which had the misfortune of playing in two brutal qualifiers and had to rely on an at-large bid to get into this field. Still, they acquitted themselves well at MEQ (sixth) and Big South (T-7) and should be a dangerous opponent for anyone. Setter Erin Potts is the team's catalyst, while Jessica Jendryk is its tallest, most physical performer. KC Extreme got its bid at Northern Lights. It's quite a feat for a second year club to qualify in Open. Keep an eye on Caitlyn Donahue, who was a libero for her high school state champions, knows how to set and uses her 27 inch vertical to advantage on the outside for this club. Wisconsin Juniors has tremendous size up front, led by 6-2 MB Carol Henney and 6-0 RS Abby Bielke. If they can pass, and that should be no issue with libero Tricia Foldy in the back row, the team could certainly improve its seeding and even scare the top three in its pool.

Predicted Pool Play Records


Cal Jrs 5-1
Dallas Premier 4-2
Tampa Bay 4-2
Team Z Orange 4-2
Lions 2-4
Wisconsin Juniors 1-5
KC Extreme 1-5


Notes: This is a brutal pool with four teams clearly among the best here and three others that would be much more competitive in other pools. Cal Jrs loses to Tampa Bay in three, but manages three-set wins over Dallas Premier, Team Z and Lions to win the pool. Premier takes second on games percentage -- they also lose to Lions in three when Natalie Patzin and Ariana Malkus get hot -- but win their four matches in straight sets. Sarah Bullock is key on the right, with her powerful swings and big blocks. Tampa, which loses to Z in pool play when Ali Surkamp gets hot, wins the points percentage battle by virtue of dominating wins over the pools bottom three. Jordan Dickie's power is evident throughout, but so too is Dana Malinowki's finesse and Arielle Lay's tremendous effort on the right side. For Lions, it's another case of being close but not quite there. They play well and Jendryk shines but it's not enough. So, too, Wisconsin Juniors, which gets nice contributions from OH Michelle Smith to take sixth in pool with a tough win over Extreme.



Pool 4

Roxy Beach
MAVA
Club Fusion
Rockwood Thunder
Jammers
Amarillo Elite
Dallas Juniors


The Scene: Chemistry. If Roxy Beach has it over four days in Atlanta, there's no reason they shouldn't repeat the 14 Open title they won a year ago. They have the most physically capable player in the field in 6-4 Falyn Fonoimoana, who moved back down to 15s from the 17s team after the SoCal Qualifier, a tremendous setter/RS in Joann Walker, a very solid shorter setter in Stacey Hallam and a quick, versatile OH in Piper Obradovich. MAVA finds itself in the same pool with Roxy, the team that beat it in the 14 Open semifinals a year ago. MAVA has been a consistent force at the top of every tournament, with the exception at Big South. The team relies on great defense, team concept and the setting of Casey Garvey to get the job done. Club Fusion is a hot team and proved it once again by winning Pre-Nationals over the weekend. MB Erin Johnson is growing into one of the best prospects in the Class of 2009 and her counterpart, Sondra Parys, is a terminator supreme. Setter Molly Turk's mind-boggling athleticism has helped make Fusion's offense one of the fastest and scariest around. Rockwood Thunder relies heavily on setter Alison Landwehr. She's one of the best assisters in the class and also has been hitting some of late to give Rockwood a new look. Versatile Brooke Boggs hits with power and is outstanding in the back row as well.

Under the commanding setting of Pihanakealoha Kea, Jammers has a balanced, smart and quick offense. Keep an eye on OHs Courtney Lelepali and MB Elissa Ji. Amarillo Elite, which qualified at Lone Star, relies on strong MB Torree Campbell and OH Aryn Bohannon. Libero Lauren Beville is one of the very best in this field. Dallas Jrs. also qualified in Dallas at Lone Star. Kendrick Koch, the coach's daughter, makes this team go whether setting or hitting.

Predicted Pool Play Records


Club Fusion 5-1
Roxy Beach 5-1
Rockwood Thunder 3-3
Jammers 3-3
MAVA 2-4
Amarillo Elite 2-4
Dallas Juniors 1-5

Notes: The top three seeds, Roxy, MAVA and Fusion, take turns beating up on each other. Unfortunately for MAVA, they drop three more contests, beating only Fusion and Dallas Jrs, to fall from contention. This despite the strong showing from OH Kelsey Anderson and middles Grace Kauser and Paige Wessel. Katie Trayser plays well for Fusion in the close two gamer versus Roxy to take the pool, while Roxy avoids a blowup after the Fusion loss to beat everyone else in straight sets. Fonoi is unstoppable, which opens up room for Walker and Katrina Alealua. It turns out that the final advancing spot rests on the showdown between Rockwood and Jammers. Jammers wouldn't be in this position but for a loss to AEV in which Campbell hits over, around and through the Hawaiian block. MB Lavender Vaka and the defensive trio of Kristin Keeno, Kelly Chang and Lesli Akeo help Jammers win Game 1 comfortably, but Boggs and Kate Kloster put up the points on the left for Rockwood in Game 2 to send the match to a third set. In Game 3, Whitney Seaton's diving dig early sets the tone for Rockwood. Lelepali finds room for Jammers, but she is matched by Boggs. Finally, with match point in hand, Rockwood;s Landwehr takes matters into her own hands, taking the second contact and pinging it into the corner for the Rockwood win that ensured their advance.


Day 3 Pools

In 15 Open, the top 12 teams advance to four pools of three in order to pare the field by four and get to an eight-team bracket for the final day. Here are the pools and what transpired.

Pool 1

KiVA
Roxy
Vision

Notes: KiVA wins the pool. They have too much firepower for Vision and are so well coached they don't lose their composure in crunch time versus Roxy. Roxy finishes second, outlasting Vision in three when Walker and Obradovich's offspeed shots catch Vision back on their heels waiting for the big bombs.

Pool 2

Alamo
Dallas Premier
Encinitas

Notes: Both Alamo and Dallas Premier sweep Encinitas, though Encinitas setter Carolyn Hillgren distinguishes herself as does defender Whitney Wilkerson, who stands 5-6, in stark contrast to her mammoth father, longtime NFL offensive lineman Doug Wilkerson. With both teams assured of advancing, Alamo/Premier is for seeding. The winner gets Roxy, the loser KiVA. Pick your poison. Premier wins in three, breaking a 13-13 tie on a Mellinger tip followed by her blast down the line.

Pool 3

Cal Jrs
Laguna
Rockwood

Notes: Everyone expects the California teams to go forward but Rockwood has other ideas. Landwehr and Boggs combine to shock Cal Jrs in three. Cal Jrs tries to return the favor to Laguna but Kipp neutralizes Corp in Laguna's three-set win. Cal Jrs then hopes Rockwood can upend Laguna to force a three-way tie, but it is not to be. Yoder is a stalwart in the back row for Laguna, which takes the sweep and the pool.

Pool 4

Club Fusion
TAV
Tampa Bay

Notes: There had to be at least one pool where all teams finish 1-1. This is the pool. Fusion beats TAV when Johnson swings into action, but can't beat Tampa Bay thanks to the all around excellence of Madison Truluck and Alex Dickerson. When TAV's lefties, Lauren Martin and Whitney Walls, team up to beat Tampa, the three-way is complete. After all is said and done, TAV first, Tampa second, with Fusion the odd man out.

Quarterfinals

KiVA d. Alamo 2-1 (Craven knows how to tool the block. Her kills and strong serving from KiVA's DS's spell doom for Alamo)

TAV d. Rockwood 2-0 (Sunstrum and Farrar overpower Thunder)

Dallas Premier d. Roxy 2-1 (With the match on the line in Game 3, a Premier swing is going long. "OB, OB," yell Roxy players to tell people the ball is going out of bounds and to stay away. Roxy coach Steve O'Bradovich thinks they are calling him and has a flashback to his playing days. He handles the ball within the confines of the court, costing Roxy the point and that proves devastating to Roxy's hopes)

Laguna d. Tampa Bay 2-0 (The end comes for Tampa as a result of Palmer's excellent floor leadership. Her sets and her devastating serve pave the way for victory)

Semifinals

KiVA d. TAV 2-0 (Hayden, Craven, Roberson, Hayden, Craven, Roberson. Repeat until 25)

Laguna d. Premier 2-1 (Premier has the power advantage with Culwell, Bullock and Mellinger, but Laguna's size wears Premier down. With the game on the line, it's Bergold on the right who comes through, first with a resounding rejection, then with a butterfly tip that finds the floor)

Championship

Laguna d. KiVA 2-1 (The final is everything you could hope for from the two top seeds in this age group. Laguna takes the first behind the thumping swngs of Farrar, but KiVA wins a close Game 2, 25-23, thanks to the defense of Klefot, Kaitlin Young and Kimberly Cunningham. Game 3 also is close, but Laguna gains some breathing room on a Mortenson kill and Bergold block. KiVA's efforts to come back are thwarted by Yoder and Laguna finally wins on a Palmer ace that sets off the celebration)


Final Standings

1. Laguna
2. KiVA
3. Dallas Premier
3. TAV
5. Roxy
5. Rockwood
5. Tampa
5. Alamo
9. Cal Jrs
10. Vision
11. Fusion
11. Encinitas
13. Team Z Orange
14. Spri
15. Jammers
15. Kaepa Invasion
17. MAVA
18. KJ
19. Lions
19. Sting
21. Wisconsin Juniors
22. Team Z Navy
23. Eastside Cleveland
23. Amarillo Elite
25. Long Beach
26. KC Extreme
27. Dallas Jrs
27. Club Elite